So what’s happened since the December 2017 when the ruling party in SA elected Ramphosa…
We have seen Zuma removed from office; the wheels beginning to turn re State capture; the ante upping re the Gupta infuence and even corrupt international cricketing being exposed right here in SA- quite ironic! Bur perhaps as new leadership that appears to be far off from the Zuma Days of corruption is beginning to take hold of our Nation and bringing through a new birthing of integrity and anti-corruption behaviour from the top. Its is off course still early days with much more the big wheel to turn into that fuller reality of change from 9 years of highly negative national governance to positive governace over our beloved land.
Globally we have seen a massive spike in employement in the developed world over the last few years; property prices and stock market shares have risen year on year and wages are rising as is consumer spending. This has to lead to the dreaded word called inflation which in turn will lead to a minor rise in interest rates in first world countries; in particular in the US. Hence the recent slow down and minor correction reflected over the last two months in the US. Still world economics is in a far better place than 10 years ago; when we saw a massive down-slide in world markets from shares to property due to the sub-primes sage in the main. Property prices even fell in Cape Town ten years ago, only returning to the same levels in 2015!
So where to now for us living in SA and the investment landscape for the next few months…
- Government bonds have strengthened.
- The ZAR has strengthened and will continue with this rise- albeit small.
- Parastatals in SA are under the spotlight- so expect better results over the next 12 monts.
- We had a local decrease in lending rates- this will continue- but slowly.
- I see interest rates slowly decreasing overall.
- Local listed JSE- in particular- property listed shares with a solid dividend run- performing above inflation maybe event at around 12%.
- I don’t think that its time to invest new money off shore as I think that the ten year market rise will now stabilise while world investors look for new and fresh opportunities to invest in, which off course SA could fall into…sooner than later.
- So look to invest locally with asset managers that have less exposure to off shore with good track records oveer the last 5 year period- off course you can always talk to me in this respect.
- Just need to excercise patience with cautios optimism re our SA market.
Thanks for reading and do e-mail me with any questions- comments.
Happy Easter, Brydal